Week 22 - Stormy Weather

Thank you to all the people out this weekend helping during the gales and the recovery from Storm Darragh.  I can’t remember seeing so many trees and powerlines down, and roof tiles and trampolines where they shouldn’t be.  I’m not sure there was a bin left standing!  On the train to London on Monday morning, in some places, the Somerset levels and elsewhere looked more like lakes than fields.  

All of this comes close on the heels of Storm Bert, and the emergency services have been brilliant.  However, we are going to have to look closely at our emergency plans and how we can be more resilient to these increasingly frequent severe weather events. 

Talking of storms, I’m not sure that any of us expected the sudden fall of the barbaric regime in Syria.  The rapid fall of the Assad regime is both welcome and worrying.  The early days look like there could be a relatively peaceful handover of power, but the forces of the uprising are splintered and must rapidly switch from revolution to ruling.   

Only time will tell, but I suspect that the troubles in Syria aren’t over yet.  I would not be surprised if we don’t face a situation where we must decide whether to get involved to keep the peace, or stand by and observe from outside.  Historically both options have been fraught with difficulties. 

The other aspect is the impact on the wider conflict in the area.  With Assad being abandoned by his Russian and Iranian allies, or them simply being caught on the hop with issues elsewhere, this may cause shifts in the perceived power base in the region.  I am sure that we will hear more soon. 

Part of the increased amount of conflict and power struggles also follows the impending change of administration in the USA.  President Elect Trump is renowned for being somewhat unpredictable and has already declared that he would not get involved, whatever happens in Syria.  His pronouncements on NATO are concerning, even if he has a point about some member countries’ contributions. 

Meanwhile in Westminster, the Government has tried to perform a mini reset.  Announcing six new milestones, to add to the five missions, has added more confusion than clarity as far as I can tell.   

I have some sympathy in that changing direction in a huge organisation isn’t quick, and the news cycle is always looking for quick and easy answers.  However, I hear from residents that they aren’t feeling optimistic, and certainly no better off.  I am still waiting too for Labour’s vision to be reflected in their choices in Parliament. 

All in all, we are living in a dangerous and turbulent time.  Traditional alliances and alignments may be shifting, and the UK isn’t as prepared as we should be.   The forthcoming Defence Review must be a vital step towards rebuilding the strength of our armed forces, whatever we may be asking them to face in the future.  The question will be - what price must we pay for security?